#FF00AA

Speaking of botched launches, I’ve kept several tabs open in my aggregator for days now, waiting for the announced Live redesign to come online — and it hasn’t.

The new profiles look nice, and it seems like Microsoft is moving globally from MySpace- to Facebook-inspired design, which can only be for the best, but why would you want to announce that before it’s online, and without giving even an idea of when it’s going to happen?

You need to pre-announce a Hotmail redesign because millions of people use Hotmail and are going to be destabilized by the most minor change (by the way, I assume the recent compulsory move to a new interface was linked with the new Live, which purports to integrate all services more tightly — at last); same thing for Facebook, with the added coolness of allowing users to beta-test the new layout months in advance. But the Live and Spaces home pages? Nobody uses those, Microsoft is wasting a bunch of blog coverage on something that isn’t online, or in beta, yet — don’t think you can entice people to check out home.live.com every week, they’re too busy checking their Facebook news feed.

Speaking of which, since I’ve been reloading my Live home page every day since Wednesday, I’ve had time to realize that most of what you may see on the new Live is already there, only hidden by a completely obscure interface. Yes, the Facebook-like news feeds are there, as are friend lists and profiles and some integration of Spaces, Photos and SkyDrive; it’s just that nobody has actually been using those, so there’s no content.

Still, one shouldn’t underestimate how a good layout and interface can make a web service gain users, especially when it’s as ubiquitous as Windows Live (everyone has an account there — well, more usually several). And you shouldn’t underestimate Microsoft’s historic capacity to turn on its heels and suddenly throw enough money and talent at a market to overcome it.

Windows Live has advantages over Google — Microsoft knows how to tie services together, whereas Google is only beginning to figure it might be beneficial — and over Facebook — Live can be as tied to Windows and ubiquitous as Microsoft wants, and probably has more users already thanks to Hotmail. The war isn’t over, it hasn’t even begun yet.